Just when we thought the labor market had nine lives, the July jobs report came in and said: “Actually… maybe just one.”
Markets were holding their breath heading into Friday’s big employment reveal—and what they got was a gasp-worthy letdown. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in June, far below the forecasted 100,000. But the real kicker? Revisions slashed an eye-popping 258,000 jobs from the previous two months. That’s not a slowdown—that’s a rewind.
So where’s the sliver of sunshine? Jobs were up in health care, retail, and social assistance, while Uncle Sam continued downsizing. And despite the rough numbers, wages ticked up, with average hourly earnings climbing 3.9% from a year ago—up from 3.7% the month prior.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and the markets read between the lines: the Fed is probably cutting rates soon.
👀 What the Fed’s Watching
Inflation isn’t going quietly. The Fed’s favorite metric, the Core PCE, held steady at 2.8% year-over-year—still a far cry from the 2.0% target we haven’t touched since early 2021. Add in the mystery of what tariffs might do to prices, and you’ve got a central bank that’s playing defense, not offense.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady this week (4.25%–4.50%). But with this weak job report, rate cut expectations for September just got a glow-up—and December’s not far behind.
🏡 What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
Mortgage rates dipped slightly thanks to the jobs stumble, giving buyers a bit more breathing room. If you’ve been on the sidelines, now might be your window—especially before fall’s next Fed meeting.
Sellers, keep your listings sharp and priced strategically. The economy’s cooling, but buyers are still hungry—and they’re watching rates as closely as we are.
Bottom Line:
The labor market blinked. Rates responded. And the real estate world is eyeing the Fed’s next move.
Want to know what this means for your buying or selling strategy?
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