Market Report Update: A Quiet Week, But Telling Trends
This past week was light on economic data, and the mortgage market reflected that with relatively minor movement. Despite some Fed commentary and updates on tariffs, mortgage rates ticked up only slightly — not enough to cause a stir.
One of the key data points came from the Department of Labor, which reported 227,000 new unemployment claims — a drop from the previous week's 233,000 and just below expectations. These numbers are far more aligned with pre-pandemic norms (think 2019) than the inflated levels we saw in 2020 and 2021. Weekly jobless claims like these give us one of the most up-to-date snapshots of labor market trends.
But here’s where it gets interesting — and a bit concerning. The number of continuing claims (that is, people still receiving unemployment benefits week after week) rose to its highest level since November 2021. That signals a potential shift. While companies aren’t laying people off at a high rate, they also don’t seem to be hiring quickly either. It suggests a cooling job market, where finding new roles is becoming tougher for those currently out of work.
Over at the Fed, there’s clearly some debate behind the scenes. According to the minutes from the June 18th meeting, officials agree that rate cuts are likely on the horizon — but when and how much are still up for discussion. Some are weighing the possibility of renewed inflation (thanks in part to potential new tariffs), while others are more focused on signs of labor market softening. Right now, most market watchers are eyeing September as the likely timing for the next rate cut.
Thinking about buying or selling but not sure if now’s the right time? Shoot me a message — I’ll give you the real (estate) talk, no pressure.
